Demographics are radically changing the context of
evangelism. When I started teaching
church leaders in the Diocese of Texas in the late 90s the importance of paying
attention to generations, I liked to point out the church make up of different Generations.
The GI and Silent Generations are
60% churched
Boomers are 40% churched
Gen X, or the Survivor Generation,
are about 18% churched
Millenials are less than 10%
churched
I would often point out that as these dynamics played themselves
out to the year 2020 there would be some major changes in the church
landscape. Here are three that I would
offer folks with the caveat that “if these trends remain the same then by
2020:”
Main line denominations such as
TEC will be in major decline
The trend of church
membership remaining between 40 and 44% would drop to 20%
The majority of those church
members would be Evangelicals and Roman Catholics
The trends have remained the same and churches in North
America are now living through a major Tsunami of social change that affects
every denomination and local congregation.
I would point out in the late 90s that the extension of
life due to medical technology and treatment had contributed to church
membership remaining around 40% because GI and Silent generation folks were
living longer. What I did not say was
that they would not live forever, but I thought church leaders could figure
this out.
What I can add to this today is that the Millenial mark a
substantial increase in the birth rate and that their numbers are significant,
rivaling the post WWII Baby Boomers. Add
this into the North American landscape combined with the substantial passing of
the older Generations and our society is rapidly changing and thus so is the
context of evangelism in North America.
Note this; church membership is rapidly dropping toward
the 20% number and consequently North American is rapidly becoming a secular
society.
Lost amid all the reactions last week to the Supreme
Court’s ruling on same-sex marriage (or as it is better identified “marriage
equality), is the relationship of this demographic and social shift (increasing
secularism and growing Millenial numbers) to how the court and wider society
sees this issue.
One reporter on PBS observed that he (an about to retire
Boomer) had never seen such major and rapid change in a social issue during his
life time. He noted that 20 years ago,
there was very little support or sympathy for the idea of same-sex marriage. He pointed out that on the day of the court ruling 37 states
allowed this and the majority of the population was in favor.
But of course, it is not the same population we had 20 years ago.
Here is what we know about the newest Generation and
their effect on this issue. Hold on to
your proverbial hats!
Polls show a substantial number of Millenials support same-sex marriage.
60% of Millenials who identify
themselves as Republicans support same-sex marriage
(Somebody please tell the 15 or
so Republicans running for President about this)
And today, Millenials outnumber
Boomers
Well, certainly “the times they are a changing” that
should be obvious. What I want to do is
not focus on the issue of same-sex marriage, but how all this will affect the
church’s attempts at Evangelism in the future. I suggest the following;
1. First and foremost, secularism and its
subsequent values (legalizing marijuana, marginalizing the place of religion in
public life, multi-culturalism, and diversity in everything – to name but a
few) will continue to develop. There is
no reason to believe that the children of Millenials will be more churched than
their parents unless there is another Evangelical Awakening.
2. Second, Evangelicals and Roman Catholics
will find evangelizing younger generations will be very difficult if that means
converting them to one man and one woman view of marriage. Polls show that younger people already see
Christians as judgmental and homophobic.
3. Episcopalians and other mainline churches
will find that being “inclusive” will NOT lead to evangelism among younger
generations. Just because a church
shares a Generation’s values does not mean that they will join the church in
any substantial numbers. (You can add to
this the fact that Progressive Christianity has a very poor track record in
evangelization of any kind.)
This means that evangelization among
post-Christian secular people must be substantially different and will be harder
than in other eras. Knowing this demographic information should allow church
people to better understand the changes taking place and stop us from just
reacting positively or negatively to each change. Knowing this should also lead church leaders
to the recognition that developing strategies for reaching Survivor and Millenial
Generation people should become a top priority.
Whether it will remains to be seen.
